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I like the idea of a deposit/nudge for bottled water, since it avoids the green authoritarian tendencies too often displayed by people in this debate.
Tap water often tastes horrid. And if the alternative is Coke, the result is using more sugar which also required water to grow. Restricting people's choice in those circumstances can only backfire.
One area where higher deposit costs might have a perverse negative effect is those who collect them for income. At the moment there is a cost/benefit ratio in which stealing collected bottles probably doesn't yield a sufficient profit to make the physical risk and negative reputation worthwhile.
This stability allows people to collect disposed containers safely and allows programs like United We Can to function and offer a critical service to a marginalized community. However, if empty bottles had more significant value, that calculus could change - having a number of empty bottles would be valuable and might actually put someone collecting them in greater physical danger. Again, this is idle speculation and the point at which that calculus shifts is totally unknown to me.
It's really remarkable how successful the 5cent bags were in Toronto. Just 5cents was enough to tip the balance at *every* merchant from the default being a bag to the default being you have to ask for one. Just look at organ donation rates, tipping from an opt-in to an opt-out default is sometimes all it takes for 70% swing in behaviour.
Water bottles are tricky though, they have value beyond the water, they are portable, reseal-able and trustable to be fresh/clean water.
and, as you suggest, why pick on the water bottles? coke is almost entirely water too only adulterated with a dollop of fairly unhealthy syrup and coloring.
If we're acting in the public as well as environmental interest, shouldn't we be taxing every plastic bottle beverage *except* pure water? wouldn't that be progress on both fronts?
That said, I don't see the issue being people who get thirsty while walking down the street and stop at the corner store for a bottle of water. It's those who buy cases of water bottles and drink 5 non-refillable bottles a day.
Larger refillable containers, or in-home filters are the way to go.